Sunday, December 16, 2007

lessons learned banks forex foriegn exchange

I have noticed that the Khmers are now giving change in US dollars and the reason is that the Khmer riel is worth more now, even with the US Dollar getting stronger last week, the Riel is gaining on it. Even Caltex has lowered their rates to 4000 riel. the real test that I haven’t done yet is to see what the Sorya market is trading the riel US Dollars at.

Why is good question to ask? Some that I spoke to thought that as we get closer to the Cambodia elections in July that the riel would weaken like it has in years past. Some of the rich apparently wait for the elections to buy property at discount rates as people want to be more liquid in case the place goes squiggly, so they can leave quickly if their fortunes turn. The credit also dries up for the same reason and other reasons as well that have to do with the rewards of election.

In speaking to some money foriegn exchange changers they felt that the Riel is going to continue to get stronger and by July will be trading around 3950. I myself was going to wait till near the elections and buy the riel when it was weak. I figured that it would go to 4200 I would buy and hold it as it traditionally gets stronger after the elections, and this year I felt it would be even more pronounced as we get closer to them starting to pump oil from the Gulf of Thailand which the oil is suppose to start flowing in 2009 only 12 months from now.

It is going to be interesting to keep an eye on this.