New Bangkok News Letter

Jim is a longtime friend of mine in Bangkok and he as you can see below has started a news letter if you are interested in keeping up with the Bangkok News write to his email and ask to sign up for his news leters as Jim Would Say Cheers!


Jim Our Man in Bangkok
This is the first news letter from me here in Bangkok June the 1st 2009

Hi, I just want to say welcome to the letter. I need your help to get started, so please read the following carefully. If you have no the time to read this, save it for later. Okay, if we're ready to start, get a nice cup of tea, coffee, cold drink or beer, make your self comfortable, and we will begin.


This next bit is where I need your help, for those who have visited Bangkok, Thailand this is for you. Read the following sit back in your chair and let your arms hang down the side of the chair freely do this for 30 seconds close your eyes and see in your mind what you have just read that should get you in the mood


Step out of your hotel into the street. The heat, as you walk along the street, fighting for space amongst the vendors on the sidewalk, the heat, smelling the odors of people cooking spicy food. The noise and bustle of the vendors doing business, the heat, people jostling to walk' by you, the heat .The traffic standing still on the road, the heat, vendors, pushing carts blocking everything, the heat, the cables on the ground, people walking all over them, the heat, the cables running above your head, and supports sticking out of it every vendors table. The heat, the swet runs down your back, and you notice the pollution all around, the heat, then stepping into a shop, bank or bar. The sudden shock of the cold air from the a/c it’s about time for a cool drink

So 30 seconds eyes closed go


For those of you who have not been to Bangkok this is yours.


Laying back on your sun lounger, and feeling the heat of the sun You look to the left and to the right soft white sand on the beach all around you. The gentle sound of waves lapping the shore the cool breeze coming off the sea .As you gaze out at the green blue sea as it meets the blue sky with small puffy white clouds just hanging there. The smell food being grilled somewhere down the beach. Behind you someone dropping ice cubes into a long glass and cool liquid being poured into the glass then served to your table .The first sip,

Now 30 seconds go


Okay, now we start.


Overview. Of Thailand


Thailand has been hit as hard as most countries in the world, but for very different reasons, two of which I will mention later. The situation in Thailand is not as bad as other countries due to the fact that their financial system was not affected by the mortgage loss that other countries suffered.


However, they are still feeling the effect of what is happening around the world, and I think sometime in the future it will kick in to Thailand. It's almost as if we have a delay effect, and as of this time no evidence to prove otherwise, but I feel sure this may come.



Economy


The economy is not as bad as was expected. The fact Thailand was somewhat remote in its dealings in the financial system helped. And although some companies, mainly producing electrical, electronics, have had to close, along with car parts and assembly plants, the rest are still full on in production. I feel that this is only temporary, and as mentioned before. There is a catch up effect coming shortly, but at this time, the currency is strong and unemployment is small compared to other countries.


The housing market seems to be slow as people are holding back from new purchases.

Condominiums are overbuilt and hence by the end of this year, if you are looking for a barging, this is what you should look for. Remember, here in Thailand, cash is king, unlike other places as long as there are buyers for products in the domestic market and food prices remain stable, the only problem to worry about is exports, lets see what will happen in the future.


Political


Okay, this is one of the reasons that Thailand is down. To make it very simple, we have the yellow T-shirts, which is a Democratic party. The members are mainly made up from Bangkok residents, comprising of middle-class and upper class, and the total sum is 3 to 4,000,000 people. This party was responsible for bringing down the previous government, and also the closure of Bangkok international Airport last November.


The opposition is the red T-shirts; these are mainly the majority of the voting population of the country, totaling some 30 million people. This is also a Democratic party and is a left over from the old Thai ruk Thai of which Taksin was the Prime Minister.


These two parties will always be politically opposed for many reasons. This will cause the continuation of political unrest, this being the case, It’s bad for the country. It's bad for foreign investment, and it's embarrassing for the population as a whole.

The current government is appointed, and not elected by the majority of voters, as and when we get a general election, and elect a majority voted party to be the government of the day, this is anyone's guess. So to sum up stalemate is the current situation.


Tourism


Okay, this is the second reason that Thailand is down. The political unrest bad publicity, high oil prices, the downturn of the world economy and ongoing protests.

These have all contributed to the lack of tourism, in Thailand. The situation may take years to come back to what it was before, again, this will depend on many factors such as political stability, prices, and confidence in the tourism industry itself. Tourism accounts for approximately 7% of GDP. This is where the largest unemployment at this time exists. I hear many complaints from all in the tourist business both Bangkok and outlying districts. There is no business. There are no customers, how long can this continue. I have an interesting opinion on how to kick start this and I will mention it at the end of this letter under where do to we go from here.

What’s on offer?


I think I mentioned before, condominiums are going to good value to buy at the end of this year. Everywhere you go all you see is discount in shops, shopping malls, shopping centers. Everyone who sells anything is offering discounts. Hotels, restaurants, even bars, not sure about the ladies of the night, this price structure, very rarely changes, but who knows. The tour organizers and anything related to the tourism industry is being offered at knockdown prices. This is a paradise for shoppers.

For those who wish to buy IT equipment and all the software you can think of. This unfortunately for manufacturers can only get cheaper as there are less buyers than in the past and stocks will have to be moved, just to make small profit. It’s good for the buyer


Discounts and prices


I have put these two together, because they are relative to one another, saves me repeating myself and possibly boring you. Food prices are about the same as last year, but I suspect they will become cheaper as I think a bit of dumping will go on. If the full effect of the world economic downturn is felt in Thailand. Then there will be fewer buyers, and possibly exports will be dumped in the local market. This is not good for producers, but again, this is a buyers market for the locals.


The Traffic


This may not seem important to someone who has never visited Bangkok, but I can assure you this will be one of your main talking points to just about everybody you meet in the city. If you are in Bangkok, you cannot, at some stage, avoid being caught in the traffic. If you only walk the streets of the city shopping, dining and visiting places, the heat, the noise and pollution will affect you from the traffic. I was in a taxi, the other day with a good Thai friend of mine, and as usual, stuck in the traffic. He turned to me and said, we are in an economic downturn. But look at all these new high-priced cars on the road. He did not understand, and neither do I, Bangkok has never been a poor city, there has always been immense wealth in the city and looking at the people driving their cars would confirm this.



Transport


There is one good thing about Bangkok actually there are many good things, but with regard to transport. Two governments back the government introduced free busses for anyone to use. This was not widely publicized, but I'm sure most of the local people know about it. These buses run all over the city, and they are free for everyone, they are not air condition have no fans, only open windows. If you have the time, and the weather is good. Then this is your mode of transport. You can identify the bus as it is red and white colored looking old and well used, and on the front window is a large white sign with of course Thai writing. You can ask someone at the bus stop where you want to go and what bus you should take. I use this myself on many occasions, and it's good. How long this will remain is anyone's guess.



Food and Drink


I mentioned before, food is about the same price as last year from the supermarket. The government has increased the tax on smokes and booze. They need to generate revenue to pay to save some industries that are suffering in this economic downturn. No different to any other country. So, smokes, went up to 30%, booze, 5 to 10% remember this is from the supermarkets.Rrestaurants pubs and bars, this of course will be more expensive and having a night out with friends now is more expensive than last year. It looks like the old Chinese way of doing business, fewer customers raise the price. In Thailand there is a very fine balance between eating out and eating at home most people tend to eat outside, it's cheaper, than buying and taking home and cooking, they also save the time and can use that for something else. So, the vendors who sell food will have to balance price and quality minimizing their profits to keep the customers. If it becomes, cheaper, to eat at home, then people would do this same way they do in the West, what we have here today is , 60% of the people eat food outside, or buy food bag it and take it home, with the remaining 40% cooking and supplying the food. I hope this will not change in the near future as it is fun to do and still within the budget.




Where to go holidays

Okay, so here’s another two I have put together, again so as not to bore you or repeat myself. The government has made comments about working with the outlying districts to encourage local tourists and foreigners to visit these places. One of the comments was to try and offer free hotel rooms, as of this time. I've heard no more on this subject. Discounts on many things, such as hotels, transport being subsidized to encourage local people and foreigners alike to stimulate the outlying areas that are suffering from lack of tourists. This definitely is a good time if you can afford it to take weekend breaks that are not expensive. Let's hope this works, the feedback I have from those who do visit the outlying tourist areas, no people place is empty, staff looking bored and owners looking worried.


Cultural events



There are many things that are happening, not only in Bangkok, but all over the country. It is to celebrate HRH the King 60 years since the coronation to the thrown

You need to check out the web site celebrations calendar 2009. This will give you all you need to know I will not list anymore here as there is so much you can check it out for yourself. By the way all of the events are FREE to the public; yes no charge even to foreigners



Heard it on the grape vine


Two weeks ago, a raid took place at the market in Pat Pong. 50 police raided the market and scuffled with the vendors and removed some goods they were selling.

This has to be the first time I have heard of this happening. TIT(this is Thailand)


It's been reported, there is a new, and mosquito born disease in the south not much info, on this as it's trying to be kept low-key. Word has it the existing drugs are having little effect or no effect. Swine fever added to this is not good.


Since the tax increase on smokes and booze, there seems to be more Thais visiting the casinos in Cambodia. This has always been a well-organized bus trip from Bangkok to the border and across to the casinos. I'm told they are not there for the gambling but to have a day out lunch at the casino and by their duty free. This may well be on the increase, if so this could start a whole new business. If you don't use it sell it.


The increase of tax on smokes and booze is felt to be the first stage of further increases, month by month. This would only be following, how many countries in the West have also adopted this policy. There are some very dangerous underlying risks to this policy, and having looked at the West we can see exactly the way things went

there. Smuggling and drugs, definitely increased due to the cost of smokes and booze


Not all gloom and doom, if you're visiting Thailand and you buy goods from reputable shops; you can request the Pink form, which is V.A.T. refund. This means that if you buy goods with a value of more than 5000 Thai Baht, you can get 7% cash back. This is done at the airport, when you depart there is an office called VAT refund.

You present your pink form and show the goods that you purchased, they will give you the 7% cash back. That's a good deal, if you've already bought discounted goods. Win, win situation



Where do we go from here?


Thailand’s food exports make up 35% of the GDP, 7% comes from tourism.


I mentioned before, that I fear, Thailand, has yet to feel the full impact of the world economic downturn. I hope I'm wrong, but it's just a feeling I have that this will impact the country, sooner or later.


I must state the following is only my opinion, and based on what I see what I hear along with some common sense ideas that are not only limited to Thailand, but could be used worldwide.


Sales, this I think is the key word, if you produce goods, at some stage, you will have a great deal of stock on hand and a new headache will start, what to do with this stock. Storage cost could become as much as production costs, this is not good. One way to look at it would be to start a large sales force. I'm afraid it's back to the old days. Go bang on the doors of all old customers and new customers. Using new employed sales persons it would also take up some of the slack in unemployment. I think the days of the buyers coming to things like trade shows and making orders is not the order of the day. Companies need to get sales teams out into the marketplace and have the ability to discount quantity orders on the spot. Credit, buyers are finding it difficult to get this. So perhaps, the companies offering goods should also offer personal credit. Buyers could be asked to make a small deposit to cover shipping and issue a company notarized promissory

Note for future payment. It's worth thinking about,


Tourism, as far as I know the first step for any tourist is the cost of travel. I feel the government should subsidize their national airline, so tickets can be offered at very low cost, making the start of the travel within the budget of the majority of travelers


Ok so this wraps up this newsletter, I welcome comments, questions even insults and all my contact details are listed below, along with a few link's that maybe are of interest to you, if not the simply ignore


Cheers JIM.


E-mail jimourmaninbangkok@gmail.com

jimourmaninbangkok@gmail.com

SKYPE gwilym24

Tel, 66-87003434